7. Dynamic Change in International Relations
© Edgar Su / Reuters
This one is probably the most obvious prediction out of all of them, and it’s almost like an Opposite Day effect if you think about it. Countries that used to view America and its leaders negatively are now warming up to the US; while countries that previously got along with America are starting to recoil
Some view that Israeli-American relations came to their lowest point in history since Obama took his second term in office. This is because of the enormous concessions the US has offered to Iran in areas of asset distribution, trade, and energy development.
When Trump was elected, Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to formally congratulate Trump on his victory. That’s because on his part, he knows that Trump will respect Israel’s regional interests and do good on his promise to void the Iran Nuclear deal.
The president of the Philippines Rodrigo Dutere in the recent past not only insulted the leadership and character of Obama, but also formally severed all ties with the United States. Now that Trump got elected: he has significantly changed his tone towards America, praised and congratulated Trump for winning the election, and began to look optimistically at renewing relations between the Philippines and the US under a Trump administration.
Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany, traditionally viewed as America’s closest allies, have all expressed their grave concerns with Trump’s bid for presidency. These countries did end up congratulating Donald on his election, but they did so conditional and with a stern reminder that they will pursue a much different political platform when dealing with Trump’s non-aligned ideals.
6. America’s Allies Will Begin to Get Their Affairs in Order
There really is nothing quite like the prospect of a rude awakening that gets people motivated to either work harder or change their strategy. Trump promising to challenge the American status quo around the world really puts a fire in the bellies of world leaders, especially ones who did not support him in the first place
In terms of trade, Trump has noted several times that America has a gross trade deficit with countries all over the world. Forget everything you thought you knew about trade, because with Trump being a business man, what he sees as a good or bad trade deal will be far more different in contrast with previous administrations. Whether that trade is contingent on other factors like defense treaties or petroleum rights, they won’t hold nearly as much sway in a Trump lead America as it used to (et vice versa). Saudi Arabia is the obvious example that illustrates this point (see the picture above).
In terms of defense, Trump has already pointed out the poor state of affairs with NATO and the immense imbalance of support that’s being carried out within the organization. Trump’s critical reception of NATO’s funding and its mission serves as a real wake-up call for many NATO members who have been profiting from such a treaty out of necessity. Expect to see exactly what Trump has been pushing for NATO members to do, and that is to pay their fair share.
5. Steady Rise of the Right-wing Movement in Europe
The pendulum of history swings from left to right, as they say. But when there is considerable momentum at play, the results become shattering.
A Brexit victory and a Trump victory were a symbolic paradigm shift in politics around the world, and particularly in Europe. All the people needed was a push to see just how feasible it is to have their values solidify. A Trump victory was the manifestation of the collective yearning for conservative values all around the world. It gave reactionaries a pass which meant that it is once again acceptable to not only dream, but to act.
People are beginning to think critically enough to question the post neo-liberal ideas and values that they’ve been instructed to uphold. They’re looking to the East and are seeing instability that partially stems from corrupt and archaic Near-Eastern religions. They’re looking to the West and are seeing the degeneration of society and the regressive nature of the current governments in power.
To the demise of the leftists’ solidified hold on virtually all public institutions; the right-wing movement is just getting started.
4. Euroskeptic Parties Like Front National Will Likely Get Elected
© AFP/ Michel Stoupak
As was mentioned earlier, the right-wing movement’s success is partially dependent on momentum.
Political pundits in France view Trump’s victory as a seriously huge bolster of support for Marine Le Pen and the Front National. It’s a renewal of confidence that the ideas and values which foment the identity of right-wing conservatism is no longer viewed as a borderline fringe ideology.
Trump’s victory ultimately legitimized the cause of the Front National, against much of the bad press they’ve been receiving from the media and other sources. This is because the values that FN shares with the movement Donald Trump instilled in America are parallel in a great number of ways. For example, both parties want to stop the flow of people coming into their country, they want to reformat their foreign policy, and they want to re-balance their trade.
Front National supporters are essentially looking at America and asking themselves “It happened there, so why not here?”
3. The UK Will do Good on its Promise and Will Leave the European Union
This speculation is founded on practicality. For all intents and purposes, the British people voted to leave the EU in their national referendum. If the elected official in the British Parliament won’t follow through with the will of the people-they risk losing hold on their control over British government and indirectly allow the Euroskeptic UKIP party to win the next general election. Given that UKIP gained 13% of the total vote in last year’s election; if the current Conservative led UK government was to accept some sort of shadowy counter-offer from Brussels to have them remain in the EU, a UKIP victory would be very likely in 2020.
On top of that, Trump’s election is a sign that there will be renewed vigor in the trading partnership between the US and UK. President Obama has made it clear in the past that if the UK were to leave the EU, the US would not look to Britain as its primary trading partner. President-elect Trump has iterated in the past that if and when the UK would leave the EU, they would reassess their trade relationship with the UK on an individual basis and not based on geopolitical ideology. The kindled bromance between Nigel Farage and Donald Trump has certainly helped the Brexit endeavor overall.
2. China Will Allow the US to Make the First Move
When playing chess, it is usually more advantageous to allow your opponent to make the first move. That way you can read your opponent’s strategy and allow it to shape your response.
China has been emboldened over the last few years in making their presence known on the world stage. Together with their military presence in the South China sea as well as their continuous use of currency manipulation sustained through artificial growth; China has learned to take advantage of America’s feigned international prowess under the Obama Administration.
Trump has been relentless when addressing the issues America has with China. In fact I would go as far as to say that much like the issue of immigration, if it wasn’t for him- the issues surrounding the US election wouldn’t so heavily revolve around China like they did. Given this reality, the Trump Administration will change its policy on all fronts when dealing with China. And once those changes are implemented into the practice of International Relations, the Chinese will re-calibrate their foreign and domestic policy.
1. America Will Attempt to Renew its Relationship With Russia
© Carlo Allegri/Reuters; © Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
This is arguably one of the biggest takeaways from Trump’s victory and the topic that’s on everyone’s mind. How will the dynamic change between Russia and America once Trump is in office?
For the better half of his entire campaign, Donald Trump has been accused by the Democrats, specifically Hillary Clinton, of working for the Russians or working with Putin in order to undermine America’s democracy. This hysteria carried on for almost the entire duration of the presidential race, rivaling the McCarthyism movement of the Cold War era.
This is partially to do with Donald’s staunch refusal of obeying the Neo-Con mantra of foreign interventionism. The entire reason why US relations with Russia has deteriorated to such a low level over the past few years, is because of America’s constant interventions into foreign states which consequently undermines Russian interests. This was exemplified when US diplomats and US backed international organizations instigated an artificially engineered revolution in Ukraine in order to oust the quasi pro-russian government of Yanukovych. The history behind the Ukrainian revolution is a long one, but the key thing to remember is that it resulted in a trade-sanctioned war of attrition between the US and its allies versus Russia.
Vladimir Putin was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his electoral victory on Nov 9. Why this felicitation was executed so quickly, one might speculate, is because Russia can’t afford to wait another minute to resume talks and negotiations with the US on the long list of issues that await to be resolved.
Is there any guarantee that they will resolve all of their differences? No there isn’t. However, what is a guarantee is that the fresh republican Trump led Administration will no longer ignore the elephant, or rather the bear in the room, and will talk it out with Russia. They owe it for the sake of the entire world.